A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
